Managing a team in the NHL is likened to constructing sandcastles on the beach – knowing that eventually, your creation will be washed away by the tide.
In the realm of NHL decision-makers, roster attrition is an inherent reality. Whether due to injuries, free agency, trades, financial constraints, or aging, change is a constant for any NHL team.
The perspective on roster changes varies depending on the team’s circumstances. Competitive teams strive to minimize attrition, while rebuilding teams rely on it to reshape their future.
During a transitional phase like the current one, attrition accelerates due to two main factors: the aging or departure of top roster players and a lack of robust prospects to offset these losses.
In the case of Calgary, players like Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, once traded or becoming free agents, will join a list of former Flames including Nikita Zadorov, Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Matthew Tkachuk.
By the conclusion of the 2025-26 season, Andrew Mangiapane, Yegor Sharangovich, and Andrei Kuzmenko will transition to unrestricted free agency. Mikael Backlund, Jakob Markstorm, and Rasmus Andersson will also become UFAs by the summer of 2026.
Among these players, only Andersson (27), Kylington (26), and Sharangovich (25) are currently under 28 years old.
The team’s leading scorer, Nazem Kadri, is 33 years old. Mikael Backlund, their top two-way center, and Jakob Markstrom, the starting goalie, will both be 35 soon.
The team is on track to miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons, with age and free agency poised to deplete the roster’s top talent.
In contrast, Calgary’s prospect pool may not be adequate to support the roster through significant losses. The number of young players ready for substantial roles is limited, including Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil, David Wolf, Jakob Pelletier, and Matthew Coronato.
The team’s recent drafts are unlikely to yield immediate additions to the main roster, with only Coronato potentially making the transition. None of the current prospects are projected to be future superstars.
Retooling occurs when a GM needs to revamp the supporting cast around a core of star players, while rebuilding becomes necessary when star players depart, compelling the team to find new foundational pieces.
Brad Treliving’s bold moves in the 2022 off-season represented a significant retool, aiming to retain a core by introducing new key players swiftly.
Despite efforts to rejuvenate the team with additions like Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar post-Gaudreau and Tkachuk departures, the strategy did not yield the desired results, underscoring the challenges of such a core overhaul.
Nonetheless, uncertainty lingers in Calgary regarding the nature of Craig Conroy’s current strategy.
Though the term “rebuild” is not explicitly used by the Flames’ management, some fans prefer a retool due to the presence of several talented players on the roster (albeit temporarily).
Ultimately, the semantics matter less than the reality of the situation, which will dictate the optimal course of action.
Conroy faces three critical factors as he prepares for the upcoming challenges: the quality of the current roster (teetering on the playoff bubble), the speed of roster attrition (accelerating), and the diminishing value of key players over time.
In essence, the Flames must navigate the challenge of sustaining competitiveness amidst significant roster changes, with the need to replenish the roster outpacing the rate of erosion. The organization’s asset base is trending towards a deficit rather than a surplus.
Of the three factors, Conroy has the most influence over the asset base, positioning the team to capitalize on expiring contracts in the next few seasons.
While roster quality and attrition are largely predetermined processes, Conroy’s strategic asset management will play a pivotal role in shaping the Flames’ future trajectory.
As unrelenting as the tide, the Flames must confront the imminent collapse of their current structure and embark on a new phase of development.